Bushwhacked ?Bush on Energy Tonight:
CLIMATE: Low expectations as Bush readies last State of the Union speech (01/28/2008)
Darren Samuelsohn, E&E Daily senior reporter
President Bush is not expected to take any significant steps on global warming tonight when he gives his final State of the Union address. But he isn't likely to avoid the issue altogether either.
With just under a year left in office, Bush's focus is likely to be on areas where he can find agreement with Democrats.
And many observers in the climate policy debate doubt the White House is ready to reverse its stance on mandatory limits to heat-trapping greenhouse gases, at least not without first seeing a bill pass Congress.
Instead, expectations center on Bush trumpeting programs he has already set in motion. That would include a series of global warming meetings with the world's largest economies that resume later this week in Honolulu.
"I know there are rumors out there, but the administration has put so much time and effort" into its current climate policies, said Joe Stanko, an industry attorney and former Republican aide to the House Energy and Commerce Committee. "I don't understand why they'd stray from what I think has been a pretty successful course."
White House Press Secretary Dana Perino offered a glimpse into Bush's State of the Union address during her briefing with reporters on Friday.
Bush's State of the Union speeches*
E&E Daily's coverage Bush's focus
2002 speech With tight budgets following Sept. 11, Bush urges expansion in U.S. energy production with veiled reference to opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
2003 speech Bush calls for energy legislation, "Clear Skies" and "Healthy Forest" initiatives. Also a $1.2 billion program for hydrogen-powered, fuel-cell vehicles.
2004 speech Small mention of energy but no big effort on environmental policies in build up to re-election campaign.
2005 speech Bush pushes again for passage of energy and "Clear Skies" legislation.
2006 speech The president says the United States is "addicted to oil," spawning a research and development plan that will help cut Middle East dependence 75 percent over next 20 years.
2007 speech Bush's first SOTU mention of climate change comes with transportation, fuel proposals.
* In 2001, Bush did not give a State of the Union speech. He addressed a joint session of Congress on Feb. 27, 2001, and again on Sept. 20, 2001.
"The speech is focused on the future," she said. "It is not a review of the first seven years of his time as president. It will identify potential areas of agreement with a Democratic Congress. And these areas of common ground include new policy proposals with realistic chances of enactment this year."
Bush wants to complete "unfinished business" with the Democrat-led Congress, including economic stimulus legislation and reauthorization of an intelligence bill. And the president also plans to talk about some of the regulations and other executive action he can do without congressional approval, Perino said.
Democrats' ideas
Democrats last week offered some of their own ideas for what they want to hear in the State of the Union.
"We call on President Bush to announce in his speech Monday night that America, always the land of innovation, will invest more to harvest renewable energy sources here at home and fight carbon emissions," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said Friday during an appearance at the National Press Club.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) previewed where she plans to go with her climate agenda -- even without Bush's help.
"We must build on last year's landmark energy legislation," she said. "We will take the next step by creating a cap-and-trade system to help protect our planet."
In a brief interview, Pelosi later said she could envision Bush reversing positions and accepting a cap-and-trade bill. "This is something that is very, very important," she said. "And I think it's something the president would sign. We have to have it." (E&ENews PM, Jan. 25)
Many others have chimed in with their own State of the Union wish lists.
A collection of 39 House Democrats and Republicans from coal states urged Bush on Thursday to propose more funding for clean-coal technologies.
Even environmental groups said they'd welcome a last-minute conversion from the White House when it comes to mandatory curbs on greenhouse gas emissions. But they're not holding their breath, either.
"Perhaps the best thing that can be said about the upcoming State of the Union address by President Bush is that it's his last one," LCV President Gene Karpinski said.
Sierra Club national legislative director Debbie Sease isn't optimistic either. "We do not expect them to wake up tomorrow and say 'Oh my God, we need to save the environment.'"
Legacy debate begins
Bush's spokeswoman said the president won't use the State of the Union to dwell on the past. But the nationally televised speech's timing -- as Democratic and Republican candidates for the White House compete for their party's respective nominations -- nonetheless sparks debate over the administration's seven-year record.
Jeff Holmstead, an industry lobbyist who ran the U.S. EPA's air office during Bush's first five years in office, sees success in several areas, starting with the 2005 Clean Air Interstate Rule that puts limits on power plant emissions in the East.
"In terms of public health benefits, it is the second most important thing EPA has ever done," he said, after mandates that forced the removal of lead from gasoline.
On climate change, Holmstead also gives Bush kudos. Because of Bush, the domestic and international debate is no longer just about mandatory caps but also gives greater weight to economic growth and energy demand in both the developed and developing world, he said.
"No one will believe this now, but 10 years from now, he'll be given some credit for engaging the world in a thoughtful way on climate change," Holmstead said.
Americans United for Change, a liberal advocacy group, is trying to halt any drive to boost Bush's legacy.
Last week, the group unveiled an $8.5 million advertising campaign designed to keep Bush's approval ratings near their historic low levels. Brad Woodhouse, the group's president, told reporters he wanted to stop Bush from making the same final-year gains that President Ronald Reagan did as he left office in 1989.
Reagan went from below 50 percent in 1988 to 63 percent a year later. The most recent CNN poll put Bush's approval rating at 34 percent.
"Progressives don't want to see a Reagan repeated," Woodhouse said. "We want to put a stake in conservative ideology."
Woodhouse's campaign begins today with a 30-second ad on CNN and local Washington, D.C., stations and includes mentions of gasoline prices and the slumping U.S. economy.
Speaking to reporters last week, Karen Wayland, legislative director of the Natural Resources Defense Council, put down a few of her own benchmarks for evaluating Bush's legacy through the State of the Union address.
"We're all in agreement that if Bush wants his legacy on global warming to be more than just lip service, he needs to throw his weight behind cap-and-trade legislation," she said.
Bush also must reverse course and give California a green light to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from cars and trucks. She added, "And he needs to reassert the United States as an international leader in addressing global