Cap & Trade Bill:---[C-Lock]CLIMATE: Dems weigh post-Bush dynamics of cap-and-trade bill (02/28/2008)
Darren Samuelsohn, E&E Daily senior reporter
Key House and Senate Democrats are using an either/or strategy with global warming legislation that would allow them to pass a bill this year but also fall back on the prospects of a more forgiving climate once President Bush leaves office next January.
"I'm convinced that having a mandatory control program for greenhouse gases at the federal level is inevitable," Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Va.) said in an interview yesterday. "I think the only question is whether it happens in this Congress or the next Congress."
Boucher, the chairman of the House Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee, insisted he wants to pass a bill into law this year.
"I have said continually that it's better to do it sooner rather than later for a variety of reasons," the 13-term congressman said. "The sooner we write the rules, the sooner industry will know what it's required to do for [carbon dioxide] and the massive amount of investment in original and low-carbon emitting technologies."
But Boucher acknowledged the prospects for cap-and-trade could be better in 2009 with a new president, whether it be Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain or Democratic Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois or Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
"That's clear," Boucher said. "Unless we do it in the meantime, which we intend to do."
Boucher did signal that much work needs to be done within the 57-member House Energy and Commerce Committee to be successful before the next president is sworn into office.
"I'm not going to be specific about dates with which we're going to have markups and floor considerations," he said. "Those decisions still haven't been made and will depend on how substantial in part we can establish consensus among all the members of the committee and interested external parties."
Speaking Tuesday during a Pew Center on Global Climate Change conference, a top energy and environmental aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) put the prospects of legislative success in 2008 squarely on the Bush administration.
Chris Miller said he expected floor debate in either May or June on a climate bill from Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) and John Warner (R-Va.). But Miller downplayed the prospects that a bill would actually make it into law, citing the long fight that preceded the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990.
"Right now, it feels like we're in a 1989 timeframe, maybe verging on 1990, depending on if the White House decides they want a climate bill or not," Miller said. "So far, every indication is to the contrary."
Lieberman 'trying to diffuse' controversies
Lieberman's climate aide David McIntosh also spoke yesterday about the prospects for climate legislation during an event at the National Press Club.
McIntosh predicted the Senate would have enough votes this spring to accept a motion to proceed onto the Lieberman-Warner bill. But he wasn't so sure about overcoming a filibuster from Senate Environment and Public Works Committee ranking member James Inhofe (R-Okla.).
"After that, it's anyone's guess," he said of the push to get 60 votes to defeat Inhofe's procedural fight.
In anticipation of a heated floor debate, McIntosh said Senate sponsors of the Lieberman-Warner bill are busy meeting with staff and outside groups on the "mega-four" hurdles to 60 votes: cost containment, federal pre-emption of state climate policies and international competition.
"We're trying to diffuse as many large divisive issues as possible," he said.
On nuclear power, for example, McIntosh said he didn't expect Lieberman would accept language that touched such hot-button items as waste or additional funding for new plants.
Instead, he said one possible area for compromise involved the creation of education incentives for new nuclear engineers -- the average age in that field now is about 55.
Jason Grumet, executive director of the bipartisan National Commission on Energy Policy, suggested that Lieberman and Warner increase the number of staff at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
Turning back to the bill's prospects, McIntosh said defeat in 2008 meant the issue would "go into the next Congress on the very cusp of enactment." He added: "Our work is the same whether this is the magical year or not."
Boucher hearing postponed
In the House, Boucher said committee staff were working on additional "white papers" that cover several key issues surrounding a mandatory climate bill. "That process will continue for some additional weeks," he said before declining to give an exact number for remaining white papers.
Boucher's next House subcommittee hearing will be Wednesday on the international competition issues surrounding climate legislation -- the topic of a white paper released earlier this month. The hearing had originally been scheduled for today but was postponed because the House is expected to go out of session early this week.