RE: It's about the Coal
Just trying to be a pessimistic as possible for the share price estimate. Just because the plant can process at that rate I don't know that they will be a 24/7 operation and averaging for 2009 I doubt they will start up at full speed. In other words it is a BS number!!
If they only do 10% of capacity then we are still good for a double from here and that is only 3x revenue for the SP. But what the heck would Mitsui invest in a venture that was only going to clock in at 10% of what it could produce. My point is there is nothing but good things to expect but it all hinges on digging coal out of the ground.
I am somewhat involved in the business but this is obvious stuff that anyone in the decision making knows. They also know there is a window of opportunity because there is one hell of a lot of coal on this planet and as soon as people decide they can make money on it they will invest in digging and shipping it. Unlike oil (limited supply) coal is destined to be cyclical so I don't believe producers will reflect the kind of multiples that the commodity price would indicate. However cost of production and loading to ship is a significant barrier to entry so the cycle could be several years on the up and down and we are just starting.
Lots to think about as every form of energy is related to oil inasmuchas demand will swing toward the lowest cost energy and coal is it for $$/BTU