RE: mike
I don't think you are either.
I think it's a hard call on nat gas vs. oil. And even on oil, economists are saying that while price of oil is contributing to demand destruction, as it retreats, the measures to reduce demand get put on back burner. Lots of talk about alternative energy right now but they expect that if oil retreats to $100 or less, that the talk will not translate to action.
So THEIR thesis is that we will see-saw on energy prices. But they believe that production is still not keeping up with necessary demand - manufacturing - industrial transportation - that sort of thing.
These are all ideas floating around in my head and it's really hard to decide which way we will go ultimately. And as we have seen in the markets lately, accurate predictions seem to be more about crystal balls than facts.
What I like about Nat Gas is percentages seem to be swinging harder than oil. HOD not moving as wildly as HND - that sort of thing. But I guess I stand to lose more as well if I pick it wrong.
Thanks for your input...