Specboy... enjoy your posts very much...
You seem to be that lonely beacon in the storm. But I am following your thinking very closely. Unfortunately, I still can't decide how this is going to play out over several weeks.
Winter approaching is supposed to level out the inventory glut. Gustav (and maybe Hanna ?) could have an altering affect on your prospectus - not trying to make an argument against or for it.
I really respect your thinking which has me filing down the catch on the SELL trigger so I can move quickly should your prognosis prove to be dead on... and I can certainly see it. Friday seemed to indicate that prices really really really wanted to go down but the pending storm warnings were keeping it stable. Is that stupid thinking ? Don't know... like I said, sort of green about commodities and what all drives them.
CNN (I know - they have an agenda) indicated that in the past, non-destructive storms cause a fluctuation in prices for about 1 week. Meaning we should see rises into next week no matter what but continue to be careful and don't get too HNU exuberant... unless Hanna develops into Gustav's UGLY sister and threatens the same area again. Destructive storms could have an "up" influence for weeks.
Oil doesn't look as affected since there is a reserve that the IEA (? not sure if that's the right body) is prepared to release into the system to compensate for destroyed production. Even so, apparently oil will go up as well although they are more concerned about the affect of the price of oil on the market than they are on the price of gas and will take measures to control it.
So gas could really run if production is destroyed. Do you agree that this is a thesis changer if production is destroyed over the next couple of days / weeks ?
Category 4 was predicted before it reached Cat 1. In that discussion, it was not excluded to be capable of a Category 5. Should it reach those speeds and intensity, and strike the rig zone at that intensity, we are looking at significant destruction although much of the drilling and production platforms have had storm upgrades in an effort to be as least disruptive to production as is humanly possible. I guess at that time we will find out how successful those upgrades were.
Finally, I cannot fathom why they would have a special opening of the NYMEX regardless of what price is going to do ? I thought / heard / and read that traders had dumped positions (short especially) so they wouldn't be caught with their pants down the way the shorts were during Katrina. What difference does it make if you have to buy gas at $9 on Tuesday morning or at $6 ? They will paying those same prices Sunday night within minutes of trading won't they ? We aren't even in their sites as retailers playing an ETF so they aren't playing off against retail ?
Can anyone give me that psychology ? Thanks in advance.