Here's an article I found today:
**GLOBAL CAPITAL CONF: Moly contract on LME will not spark dramatic
change in prices, says Loughrey
October 02, 2008
The launch of a molybdenum contract on the London Metal Exchange will
not spark a dramatic change in molybdic oxide prices, Thompson Creek
chairman Kevin Loughrey told delegates at the Global Capital Conference
in London on Wednesday.
"As it stands, there is a fair amount of activity on the spot market
and, I suspect, if it [the LME] is successful, it won't change prices
significantly," Loughrey said.
But price volatility may increase as a result of molybdenum's
attractiveness to investors and more speculative players entering the
market, Loughrey said, as he gave an optimistic outlook for molybdenum
prices in the next few years.
"We might get some more volatility as we get more financial players in
the market...it'll be interesting to see what happens," he added.
Thompson Creek is aiming for 34 million lb of contained molybdenum
production in 2009, compared with this year's projected forecast of
23-24.5 million lb, he said. Thompson Creek produced 16.4 million lb of
contained moly in 2007.
The annual growth in demand for molybdenum is steady at around 4%,
Loughrey said, adding that moly is staying strong in the face of the
global slowdown, and that he foresees little downside for prices even as
other alloying metals' prices fall.
"Molybdenum is very hard to substitute, and that's very important. When
prices go up, demand doesn't really change. If we stay steady at 4%
demand growth per year, supply will find it hard to keep up," he said,
noting that some companies could be forced to cut expansion projects in
the tighter credit markets.
The market will also remain tight as China stops exporting and consumes
all of its own molybdenum, Loughrey said.
"By 2012 or 2013, China is going to consume all of their own moly, and
they will be less and less a force in the outside world," he told
delegates.
Thompson Creek has reserves of one billion lbs of molybdenum. The
company's profits in the first half of this year totalled $107.2
million.
Copyright (c) Metal Bulletin Ltd.