RE: where could the share price go? warrants and o
Fully diluted, we'd make 146 mm shares. Warrants adds $66 mm in the treasury, I believe it was, or 45 cents per share. Ascribe a conservative value of $5 USD per discovered boe in the ground. 1 mmboe discovered would be worth 5 mm CAD using a lazy 1:1 conversion on USD to CAD. Taking 10 mmboe and dividing it by the fully diluted number of shares results in a 34 cent value to the shareprice per discovered 10 mmboe.
Were they to actually do the unimaginable and strike the net best estimate of 41.2 mmboe in Bogal-1, it would be worth $1.41 CAD per share. Due to the growing interest in Kenya, I think you'll might have to add a dollar or two to the price per boe in the ground. I'm not up to date on the natural gas price and what conversion rates are used these days, but convert units of gas to barrels of oil equilvalents and follow the same principles for valuation.
This doesn't even begin to tell the story, in my opinion. Block 9 and 10BB are both in the Anza basin. If they're right on the geology, Kenya gets swarmed by majors and we become a takeover target, and it'll drive prices up. Pure fundamentals, the actual recovery rate from Bogal-1, if it's an oil discovery, would indicate how well the geologists did their homework. This will be used to value the company's blocks in the Anza basin. The data collected will either way of success or failure require reviewing and revising the current geologic chance of success on their leads and prospects. They've got a bunch of leads and prospects. On block 9, we're talking 160 mmboe net best estimate today. And Block 10 BB has a net best estimate of something like 1400 mmboe. Oil drilling is high risk. All these numbers are pie in the sky until we see Bogal-1. That's really important to keep in mind. But point is, the real headache about the AOI shareprice in case of a discovery in the Anza basin would be how to value all these leads and prospects in the Anza (not caring about their other blocks right now.) That's where the real boost to the shareprice would come from. Not from discovered barrels in the ground. :-)