political movement possible breakthrough?Not a done deal but we are allowed to dream! From TehranTimes
The parliamentary speakership
goes to the Kurdish alliance. They
will be compensated for the loss of
the office of the president with the
highly significant ministry of oil.
This will allow the Kurds greater
flexibility in dealing with the oil
extracted from their province and
its sale, and reduce the conflict
with the central government.
https://www.tehrantimes.com/PDF/10970/10970-15.pdf
MEMRI staff On Friday we pointed
out that the prospects
of Adil Abdul Mahdi as
the next prime minister in Iraq
were rising, while those of outgoing
prime minister Nouri al-
Maliki were declining. There
are numerous indications that
the negotiations between the
factions are about to break the
stalemate.
The most viable scenario for
a new government would appear
to be taking the following
shape. It would be a government
supported by three of the four key elected groups in parliament,
namely Allawi’s al-Iraqiya, the Iraqi National Alliance,
and the Kurdish Alliance. The most significant posts would be
allocated as follows:
Adil Abdul Mahdi as representative of the Supreme Islamic
Council (SIC) will be prime minister. This important proviso –
that he is selected as a representative of the SIC rather than
the Iraqi National Alliance (which also includes the Sadrists) –
is significant because it downgrades the weight of the Sadrists
who control a little over half of the seats of the Iraqi National
Alliance and who will probably be making unacceptable demands,
including the one that the strategic agreement with the
U.S. should be terminated, or that they should be assigned
one of the two key security ministries – either defense or interior.
The presidency will be assigned to al-Iraqiya, with one vice
president to be offered to al-Maliki’s State of Law.
The ministry of foreign affairs would most likely go to a Sunni
politician, in an effort to bring Iraq back into the Arab fold.
The parliamentary speakership
goes to the Kurdish alliance. They
will be compensated for the loss of
the office of the president with the
highly significant ministry of oil.
This will allow the Kurds greater
flexibility in dealing with the oil
extracted from their province and
its sale, and reduce the conflict
with the central government. It
would also signal to the international
oil companies that have recently
reached agreements with
the ministry of oil to develop Iraq’s
oil fields that the ministry is in the
hands of the most pro-Western element
in the Iraqi political landscape.
There also seems to be a broad agreement on the allocation
of the various cabinet posts, particularly those that are
commonly referred to as the “sovereign ministries,” namely
foreign affairs, finance, interior and defense.
Al-Maliki’s State of Law will most likely join such a coalition
whose three pillars are al-Iraqiya, the Supreme Islamic Council,
and the Kurdish Alliance. Even without the State of Law,
the three other factions control at least 225 seats in a 325-seat
parliament, a large enough majority to rule the country for the
next four years.
Al-Maliki himself would most likely opt to stay out of a new
government, but he could be offered enough incentives to
join.
We should emphasize that the above falls in the domain of
“political projection” which, as one once quipped with regard
to economic projection, “it is always correct except when you
need it.”
(Source: https://m.memri.org)