Macquarie Report from oct 18https://resourceinvestingnews.com/files/2010/06/Macquarie-Equities-Research.pdf
not sure if it was posted here
What’s next? With land positions already established and producer’s having had an opportunity
to set capital budgets, we believe there will be a steady flow of news from the Alberta Bakken in
early 2011. Highlights over the next 18 months will include:
1) Land affirmation. The players who bought land under broker at the May-Sep Crown land
sales will reveal their name, the size of the established position, and their development
intentions for the area.
2) Consolidation. Junior companies with meaningful, strategically situated lands will be
purchased outright by mid/large cap producers who seek to bolt on additional acreage to
already established positions. The potential exists that players who were late to the game
may try to establish a position in the play via a small corporate acquisition, once some of the
associated risks have been mitigated by the early-comers.
3) Farm-ins. We believe some select junior/midcap companies will execute strategic farm-ins
on super-major companies or freehold owners as they look to either expand their land
position as an early-comer or establish a position as a player late to the game.
4) Seismic. Larger players who will proceed forward with sizeable development programs (eg,
Crescent Point) will complete 3D seismic programs to help define the resource.
5) Infrastructure development. Producers will build the necessary infrastructure once the
’sweet-spots’ of the play have been determined. Currently there are seven gas plants
operated by Bonavista, Altagas, Penn West, and Husky that are lined to handle the solution
gas produced from the AB Bakken.
6) Initial results. We expect to hear results from up to 20 wells licensed or drilled on the play
through 1H11. Crescent Point is expected to deliver the most robust development program,
and will likely lead the R&D on the play.
a. Crescent Point: will drill 19 wells to evaluate the play by year-end 2011.
b. Bowood: will spud its first horizontal in early 1Q11, with follow-ups to be evaluated
immediately thereafter.
c. Deethree: will drill two vertical stratigraphic tests in 4Q10.
d. Murphy: will drill at least 16 wells over five years.
e. Broker: results from confidential and proprietary, broker-operated wells will be
revealed once the contractin