First Tidal Acquisition Corp T.AAA

Primary Symbol: V.AAA.P

First Tidal Acquisition Corp. is a Canada-based capital pool company. The Company's principal business is the identification and evaluation of a qualifying transaction and once identified or evaluated, to negotiate an acquisition or participation in a business subject to receipt of shareholder approval, if required, and acceptance by regulatory authorities. The Company has not generated revenues from operations.

TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User

First Tidal Acquisition Corp

Bullboard Posts

Post by Karmanowon Dec 21, 2010 9:09pm

683 Views

Post# 17879798

Allanas Real Value in 2011

Monsanto, The Mosaic Company, Scotts Miracle-Gro, Agrium, and Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan are great bets for the coming year.

By Bryan Murphy

Published: December 20, 2010 1:32:37 PM PST

Why is this table material to Allana shareholders? Well it clearly shows what the Industry Norm is for applying a valuation on share price for a producing potash company……Our website indicates that we expect to see a release of the 101N1 Resource Report by the end of Q1 2011. The website also indicates that we expect to see completion of the Feasibility Study by the end of 2011. So, once we confirm our resource, confirm the feasibility of mine construction and profitability from operations, and we secure the balance of Capex for Mine Construction/ sign off on offtake agreements we can expect Allana to move forward toward mine construction as planned.
Karma

Hole #7 due any day and closest Parsons Hole drilled proves up:(24.6%Sylvinite / 1.8 meters and 67.79%Kainite / 5.94 meters)so I expect good results soon....+++

The last colum in the table attached below is very material as it shows the Forward P/E expected for Fertilizer Producers within the sector: For the companies listed below the Average forward PE Ratio is 26 times….not guess work but our industry reality….. the lowest valuation of $11.96 per share is 17 times higher than our current share price….I am willing to wait 2.5 more years to get 17 times more……

A conservative model for similar earnings per share calculation would be:
2 million tons mined per year x 20%KCL = 400,000 tons of KCL x $350 per ton (current price) = 140 million dollars E/V or Net Operating Income / 200 million shares =

.70 cents earnings per share x 20 times E/V per share = $14.00 per share.

.70 cents earnings per share x 26 times P/E forward earnings = $18.20 per share

An optomistic model based on Dundee pricing model:
2 million tons mined per year x 23% KCL = 460,000 tons of KCL x $400 per ton (Dundee price) = 184 million dollarsE/V or Net Operating Income / 200 million shares =

.92 cents earnings per share x 20 times E/V per share = $18.40 per share.

.92 cents earnings per share x 26 times P/E forward earnings = $23.92 per share

At the lowest end of possibilities and if the feasibility report gives us a 1 million ton per year mine, then the earnings per share =

.46 cents earnings per share x 26 times P/E forward earnings = $11.96 per share