TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Comment by
Karmanowon Dec 22, 2010 12:54am
483 Views
Post# 17880527
RE: RE: Allanas Real Value in 2011
RE: RE: Allanas Real Value in 2011Fertiman you are correct in your thoughts regarding the future of Potash and its increasing need. You correctly point out that the spot price of Potash has increased and will likely continue to increase in my opinion...Our proposed 20% off take agreement with ChinaCo was priced at $350 per ton. We are not sure if Farhad will sign off on this agreement but we do know according to the NR. that negotiations were sucessfully concluded many months ago.
Part of the beauty of Allana it is very profitable at $300 per ton potash, so I think we will not only wait until the 101N1 Resource is published and confirms our resource in April but also wait until potash is projected to go up to $700 per ton for spring planting. Timing is everything, and locking in for lets say $500 - $600 per ton for the off take in lieu of complete capex financing of $800 million for mine construction completely changes the matrix and profitability of Allana once in production. And yes, in theory if we were going to issue 8 million shares as proposed in the first 20% off take we would have to issue 45 million shares of Allana to secure 100% financing and a100% off take agreement.
$500 per ton off take - $100 for Opex = $400 x 400,000 tons of KCL= $160 million dollars / 220 million shares = .73 cents per share x 26 times P/E ratio = $18.90 per share.....
What ever the final results of Off Take end up being....I can assure you that it will be good for shareholders as it appears that Farhad will be in the drivers seat.......
Karma