RE: LFD indicates 10% chance for 6.5 billion barreOK Maysteeler, I agree that these numbers can be extracted from lfd, but no one but an unethical booster would use these numbers the way you repeat them. At least no one with any experience in oils, and I will try to explain this to you.
LFD says prospective resource could be 6 to 1967 million barrels. Firstly no one cares about higher in place numbers, only what can be produced, so focus on "gross ultimate recovery" numbers. The 1967 million is estimated recovery from 6556 million in place. If the project is successful, there is an equal chance recoverable reserves could be less than 6 million or greater than 1967 million, but the most likely outcome is 132 million barrels!
LFD says a 63% chance of success and if successful, there would be a .63 X .10 = 6% chance that the field would be 1967 million barrels or higher. As result, no one should be making any decisions only based on this outcome. Normally companies use the P50 number to justifying the venture. Upside potential is great, but per above pretty remote.
It is the same as the $100 lottery ticket where the grand prize is a big house. They usually advertise that the chance of winning is 1 in 12, but no one seriously thinks you have a 1 in 12 chance to win a house! If you do in fact win, it will likely be $25 camera that you could care less about.
Unrealistic hype does no one any good, and I think reserve size could be less than 51-101 numbers, see map on page 27 where field is now 36.9 sq km, not original size of 42 sq km and it is now shown as 2 parts a prospect and a less certain "lead".
Also remember that all of the reserve numbers are for 100% and lfd has only 40% with a big royalty to KRG. Even with "success", there is still a big chance reserves will be too small to make any money?