RE: A metaphorCupricity
I'll accept the metaphor, an industrious energized squirrel vrs a flea-infested old dog!
OK, the other opportunities in Kurdistan are fairly well-known and fairly well-reported. As you point out, it is all about spreading your risk. There is a good proven new oil play in north (Gulf Keystone) and still emerging riskier plays in south (WZR, HOC, Shamaran, vast & lfd).
I really like the diversity of Shamaran, 3 blocks in south and into the Atrush block in north. At Atrush they have just finished 1st well (spud October, TD in Jan..... what progress was vast making during this time?) Sounds like their results will be similar to gulf Keystone next door, not yet proven but looks and sounds pretty solid (compare to lfd's reliance on an old well with dubious info drilled in late 1940s). They also have exposure in south on the known tertiary play at Pulkhana, poor historical results but on trend and closer to Kirkuk) and on Cretaceous/Jurassic play at Arbat where they report the largest surface seep in southern kurdistan.
HOC is less attractive after #2 well hit deep gas but still like the management which does have a proven track record in oil (who is the lfd oilman?)
I have given up on Sterling as they seem to have sour gas (next door to vast)!
So Shamaran is at top of my list and smaller investments in others because you just never know for sure until the well is drilled and tested!
Right or wrong, that is my take on situation. My mistake if I am wrong, but that is what 30 years oil experience tells me. And I am not getting my inspiration from some guru on the other side of the world! What a joke this taxiboy has become!