RE: RE: RE: RE: Resource EstimateProbably more than people on this board think because this thing is not a secret. People have been buying for this for a while now.
Although I believe the price drop is due to the uncertainty and corrections happening the last while ... I still believe that the 1.75 price tag has a good chunk of the new Resource Estimate in it.
Maybe worth about $2 after resource estimate, NTL and fesibility study.
There is potential to prove up more after the BFS is out ... which will increase the valuation (assuming positive results of course).
I also see a lot of people saying that the most positive thing is if Teck doesn't buyback. That might be true in the long term (who's to say, many things can happen between now and potential production). But the short term that will not help the stock and if they don't buy back be prepared for a price drop at least in the short term (from the run up leading to the buby back option deadline)... because this potential buyback is ALSO priced into the stock (proof of that can easily be seen by how many people talk about it and pump it/flaunt it).
The reason it's not good short term is because that will show a lack of faith by a large player in the industry. If teck doesn't think CUU is a good investment, why should you think that?
Now that said, CUU seems like a solid investment and I don't see why they wouldn't buy back in ... but if they didn't that would definitely give me pause because they know a heluva lot more than I do about the value of a company ... and because there seems to be no reason NOT to buy back.
If they don't buy back because it's not part of their strategic goal, that's a different story.
As it stands, this play is a good investment. I imagine Teck will buy back. The new resource estimate and NTL will drive the price upwards of 2$ ... the BFS will have it hovering around or above $2.
Then the price will steadily rise as the 120 day deadline approaches because people are expecting Teck to buy back.
My worst case short term scenario is $2 for the summer. If no buyback, I will look for the stock to retrace to that level or a little further and settle. Then when they start more drilling and getting results it will start to go up again.
Little downside ... very good upside.
Sorry for the long winded post ... I bet I said the same thing several times.