The true story about moving a company with a good resource into a company that is a producer has been and always will be "in the numbers"....Liberty Metals and the IFC World Bank have done their due dilligence and came up with the same conclusion...Allana will be the next low cost producing potash mine....Allana has clear advantages over her peers.
A 1 kilometer deep resource versus a 200 meters deep resource....We all know it is important to have a huge resource with high grades of KCL. When we move forward to production it is the shallow low cost mines that will get to production over the long term...It is important to have a resource that can take any market volitility or price of product fluctuations. Allana will have a resource that can be mined a lower prices ....the Bankable Feasibility Study will confirm this in time....So, Allana gets the nod for a 3 million tonne KCL mine = 10 million tonnes of ore at 25% KCL mined per year at a 35% - 80% extraction rate
So, no matter what the pending NI Resource Estimate reveals ( holes # 1 - 11) plus some additional results. Remember we have 21 holes drilled and it is likely only 60% of all the drilled results are going to be counted in the pending resource estimate.
With the potential for Open Pit Mining part of our resource moves up our KCL extraction rate from 35% to 80%. Then we get a $150 per tonne premium for our premium SOP Potash...
According to the Dundee Report (of Feb 3.2011 page 8) they have an estimated Capex for for Allana at $800 million dollars for a 1 million tonne KCL per year mine. Dundee shows a $2.6 Billion Dollar Capex for Potash One for 2.9 million tonnes of KCL per year and $2.5 Billion Dollar Capex for WPX for 2.5 million tonnes of KCL per year.
"An increase in potash production is difficult in cost and time. A Greenfield project takes a minimum of 7 years including ramp up. Including infrastructure, Greenfield projects cost CDN $4.7 billion to $6.2 billion to add 2 million tonnes KCL annually".
When you consider this article and apply a Capex Cost of $4.7 Billion Dollars for a new greenfield mine in North America you can clearly understand why a new Potash Mine has not been built in Canada for over 40 years?
Simply considering an investment of $4.7 Billion Dollars to recieve 2.5 million tonnes of KCL per year tell the tale.
Debt Servicing the Interest at a loan rate of 10% per year = $470 million per year
$500 per tonne - $150 opex = $350 net per tonne x 2.5 million tonnes = $875 million per year NOI
Debt Servicing the Interest at a loan rate of 10% per year = $80 million per year
Food prices have been rising. The price change has been significant enough to create difficulties in emerging markets. Some countries have had demonstrations and riots. There are several reasons for the increase in food prices:
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Emerging markets such as China and India have a new middle class.
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With increased industrialization, people move from rural to urban areas.
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Increased wages are first spent on a better diet.
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An increase in meat consumption versus a grains-based diet creates more demand for food.
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It takes significantly more to feed animals that go to slaughter as opposed to crops going straight to the dinner table.
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Biofuels also have increased consumption.
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Mandates for ethanol production from corn and biodiesel from soybeans have tightened supply and demand.
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Very few countries have additional acres to convert to farmland. This creates problems as industrial growth creates demand for residential and commercial property.
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As the world population increases, the total amount of farmland will continue to decrease.
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The only way to increase the amount of food is to increase yield.
Since much of the world under-applies fertilizer, it creates an interesting scenario.
Fertilizer is composed of three key nutrients. Potash is mined and is primarily used as a crop nutrient. Its potassium strengthens plant stalks and roots. Potassium also helps plants fight disease and injury, while improving yields. It also improves color, flavor and texture. Phosphate is made from ancient marine fossils. It is used in fertilizer, feed and industrial products. Phosphate aids in photosynthesis, cell division, crop maturity and yields. When used as a feed supplement, it aids in skeletal development and animal muscular repair. Nitrogen occurs naturally in the air, but has to be converted for use in agriculture. Nitrogen increases crop yield, and plant growth. It is responsible for how green a plant is.
There are several reasons to be bullish fertilizer and the companies that produce it.
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There is less available farmland.
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Population growth increases the size of urban areas, thus decreasing available farmland. The world population is expected to grow to 9 billion by 2050.
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With better economics in emerging markets, more people are eating meat. A meat diet takes a substantially greater amount of grain.
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The BRIC nations have historically under applied fertilizer. The decreased farmland will put further pressure to increase production, which should lead to these nations increasing fertilizer application to that of the United States or Europe.
Five markets currently account for 80% of the world's fertilizer consumption. By breaking down these markets and identifying changes over time it gives an idea of where the fertilizer business is going.
China
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19.6% of the world's population
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Uses 30.5% of the world's fertilizer
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Meat consumption has increased almost 700% in last 30 years
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Fruit and vegetable consumption is up almost 1000% in the last 30 years
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Imports 80% of soybean consumption
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75% of potash is imported
India
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17.6% of the world's population
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Uses 16.4% of world's fertilizer
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Fertilizer consumption has increased 4.5% annually this decade
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Yields are 20-50% of the United State's cropland
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Has no indigenous potash
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Potash is under applicated when compared to nitrogen and phosphate
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70% of soil is potassium deficient
Asia excluding China and India
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19.8% of the world's population
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Uses 11.3% of world's fertilizer
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Leading producer of oil palm, rubber and rice
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Indonesia and Malaysia have doubled palm oil production in last 10 years
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No indigenous potash
Latin America
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8.5% of world's population
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Uses 9.2% of world's fertilizer
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Produces 60% of global coffee supply
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Produces half of the world's soybeans and sugar
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Corn is grown for export
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Brazilian soil is naturally deficient in potassium, and needs potash
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80% of potash is imported
North America
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5.1% of world's population
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Uses 12.5% of world's fertilizer
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Major suppliers of food and fiber
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U.S. accounts for 40% of global trade of wheat, corn, soybeans and cotton
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Efficient agricultural production
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Biofuels have increased need of corn and soybeans
Of the three nutrients in fertilizer, potassium has more upside.
- Potash is used worldwide, but only 12 countries produce significant production.
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Some 20% of potash production is government-controlled.
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Canada, Russia, and Belarus account for 67% of world production and 80% of world reserves.
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An increase in potash production is difficult in cost and time. A Greenfield project takes a minimum of 7 years including ramp up. Including infrastructure, Greenfield projects cost CDN $4.7 billion to $6.2 billion to add 2 million tonnes KCL annually.