RE: RE: A voice of Reason from RavenI don't read anything negative into My post or the other post... It is one thing to be excited about the prospect of finding a little gem in the rough like BWD...IT is another to allow that excitement colour the reality of the situation. AND that is all MY post was meant to do... bring some "real" metrics and genuine scenarios to the board.
Little companies like BWD are prone to the vagaries of pump and dump artists... that feed the feely good news one day... then p*ss all over it the next so that traders can eke out a living based not on any thing real BUT use the excitement to create the perception of unrealistic expectations...
I prefer the companies I invest in to be held by folks that are knowledgable and patient... that understand the important metrics and are aware that while it's fun to revel in the excitement of a well engineered productive well...BUT to be aware that ONE well or even 1 year in the life of these juniors does NOT make or break a company... IT is a slow plodding exercise to create real value... and IT takes 3-5 years before the "baby" gestates and the investor can begin counting fingers and toes and picking out crib linens...
heres' some math for you... quartzite...2011 - 1979 = 32 years 32 years x 365 = 11 680 days... 245 K Barrels of oil / 11 680 days = about 21 BOE/D. average over the last 32 years... IF they can find 200 wells that will produce 50BOE/D over the course of 20 years...then you would be hard pressed to find a more satisfied investor than myself...
If this well is considered a single frac... I would expect that a HZ multi (10-20) stage frac... would return (over the course of 20 years) about 50-100 BOE/d average THAT would be best case scenario...
As for profitable SK Bakken producers... I would say that the jury is still out on that front... consider the size of the drilling programs the main players (CPG & PBN) have undertaken over the last couple of years... and Bakken Oil (In SK) requires very large Capex to hold production let alone show any gains...and bear in mind that PBN and CPG are already developing their secondary schemes ... IT IS TIGHT OIL after all...
it isn't negative to keep the conversation on the prudent side of reality...
it's my opinion git yer own