GREY:BIXZF - Post by User
Post by
dant2on Jun 17, 2011 3:24pm
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Post# 18730845
a few questions?
a few questions?Did anything ever come of your (Mike5141) securities lawyer quiries? I maybe wrong but the BDeal if executed legally (which I doubt), should still be brought before the SEC. If all was legal I think its time to introduce legislation to prevent insiders selling down the stock and hence screwing the little guys unfairly.
I should have listened to OGO but didn't, so now to hold/sell or buy more. To me it depends on real production, revenue and of course a viable ongoing cash position. I would like to model this but I need to know a couple of things.
Assumptions;
- 40MT plant but per previous poster expect 36MT as the actualy max capacity
- to process 40MT annually does the plant need to runa 24/7/365 operation. I know they will be going to 7 day operation but is that 2 shift (how many hours) this will help with cost of operations as things ramp
- runrate - anyone know what that maximum run rate aka seed throughput per hour. I know that we are running between 10% and 65% but exactally how many tons per hour can go through at max run rate
- production uptime, we can model in the changes CC spoke of and initially assume a 50% yield to get the broken dry bulk volumes for remaining Q2/Q3 and Q4.
Using the 80% purity and $6 pkg we should be able to produce some reasonable revenue numbers and hence judge whether the critical areas requiring productivity improvements are working. (and future cash reqs)
Personally I no longer trust management to "promise less and deliver more" they still haven't learned that lesson. So for example cip - clean in place is an issue, what happens if cip doesn't work and they have to stop production and rotate dual/triple stations into the production line in order to kep things moving.
CC sees "absolutely nothing in the way" but I'm not believing it this time.There has to be many similar cip like problem possibilities like this which will slow productivity & revenue and increase costs as more fine tuned permanent solutions are developed - my guess is Q2/3 2012 before we reach close to max capacity/yield/quatity.
Sorry for the long message. Coments welcome - if I get some reasonable baselines to work from I will create a working excel sheet to deal with the variables and come up with potential q/q revenue scenarios
dan