TSXV:BMX.B - Post by User
Post by
dixonstalberton Jun 28, 2011 12:50pm
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Post# 18774560
the positive and the negatives
the positive and the negativesclosed at 48.5 cents yesterday tempting me to buy more
I am positive on bmx because of:
1. June 2 presentation gives estimate of .90 cents/share NAV. , .62 cents of the value is in proved producing reserves. difficult to see where you can wrong when you buy below 1P NAV...
2. board awarded options last month at .58/share so we are now below that
I am negative on bmx because of:
1. V.P. exploration since 2006 resigned last month to take a non-board position with Athabasca oil-sands. fellow they promoted to V.P. was listed as temporary and now he is not listed under Management on their website.
I do not have any information on whats going on but I think loss of Exploration head in a very small oil company is significant. Also the fact next in command was not given a permanent position is concerning. This reduces my confidence in 1P estimates.
2. I am little uncomfortable how they calculated 1P NAV in June2 presentation. They used Dec 2010 'net debt' (non-gaap) of 32.8 million when 2011Q1 was closer to 37 million. Also they used April 2011 price deck. I could not find the numbers they used. ( If you work backwards from their Mboe estimates, they seem to be valuing boe at $10-20 net income?) In april wti price was near its peak this year of $108/bbl. It looks to me like they cherry picked debt and price estimates to give the best NAV...
2. stock price is tracking the market trend of all small commodity companies; 10-20 % loss over last 2 months as people move out of higher risk stocks. short term trend still looks down
3. Not sure what to make of delay in reverse split- maybe they are purposely waiting because of an impending bottleneck with expansion; eg. reverse-split greatly increases inflow of capital, but there is no where for the capital to go as there are limited manpower and acquistions in their drilling area. could be they are just waiting to get their ducks in a row - or maybe it is because they dropped the ball...
anyone have any info on the V.P. Exploration?