Best Is Yet To ComeThere are a couple of things the article below tell anyone invested in the Potash Sector.
Firstly, when the big Fish Talk (10 million tons of KCL production per year)....the Little Fish should listen...they project potash price at $600 per tonne next year...
Deficits in production up to 2016 are projected as well....when is Allana planning to start production?
Difficult to give it a valuation...the Indian Government said the same thing just a few weeks ago...wonder how the Indian Govt is going to buy 30% of this company?...as the writer says Uralkali 'wants to buy a controlling stake"
From the articles posted on the Indian Govts interest...they appear to be able to get their hands on about $1 billion...and that is not going to be enough to make it happen...so...what will be the fall back position or strategy for the Indian Govt. if the russion deal does not materialize?....I think the Ethiopian Basin is the LAST large basin that contains the worlds next potash producing mines....and I think India also knows this...so does China...and Farhad was overseas for 4 weeks and said, he would update the market upon his return..?
Stay tuned folks...the "best is yet to come"
I am now convinced more than ever...that India needs Allana more than Allana needs India...
"potash prices would continue to grow despite global economic jitters"
Supply and demand will dictate the price...and our BFS will soon be able to base our financial model on $600 per ton KCL instead of the current $450 per ton....that my friends is a BIG DEAL when you run the numbers...no matter what you use for operational costs...
we would still make millions even if Farhad decided to use three legged Camels to carry the potash to the port....lol
Karma
Uralkali eyes control of Belaruskali
By John Bowker and Kiryl Sukhotski
MOSCOW | Tue Sep 13, 2011 12:00pm EDT
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian potash miner Uralkali (URKA.MM) (URKAq.L) wants to buy a controlling stake in Belarussian trading partner Belaruskali, but does not yet have enough information to value the firm, Chief Executive Vladislav Baumgertner said on Tuesday.
Belarus has been under pressure to give up control of Belaruskali -- among the world's biggest four miners of potash -- since being rescued from financial crisis with a Russia-led loan earlier this year.
"The obvious option for an acquisition is Belaruskali, although for the moment it is not for sale," Baumgertner said at the Reuters Russia Investment Summit. "From a strategic point of view Belaruskali is a very attractive target for us, but it is not a public company and therefore hard to make a valuation."
"We do not have enough information to make a valuation. If we decide to buy, it will be a controlling stake of course," he told Reuters Insider Television at the summit, held at the Reuters office in Moscow.
A tie-up of the two miners would create the world's biggest producer of the farming agent, leapfrogging Canadian group Potash Corp (POT.TO). Baumgertner said Uralkali was already on track for the number one position.
"We believe we are already the leader of the market. The strategy is growth. Next year we can increase (production capacity) from 11 million to 13 million tonnes and have several greenfield projects."
He said investment for growth of "several hundred million dollars a year" could be funded from cashflow and existing finances.
Uralkali also raised its 2011 production forecast to 10.8 million tonnes from 10.6 million tonnes.
"2011 will be a very good year for potash. Global demand is 58-59 million tonnes, " Baumgertner said, adding that he expects demand to increase by 3-3.5 percent annually, and that deficits of about 2 million tonnes could appear on the market up to 2016.
Uralkali is controlled by the billionaire oligarch Suleiman Kerimov, a businessman who is also making headlines for his signings of expensive soccer players including Samuel Eto'o and Roberto Carlos for his club Anzhi Makhachkala.
Baumgertner also said potash prices would continue to grow despite global economic jitters, as demand for the fertilizer ingredient remained robust.
"Potash prices will continue to grow. There is some financial turmoil but prices for agricultural commodities remain high. Next year we see potash spot prices at $600 a tonne," he said.
Spot potash prices are currently $535 per tonne in Asia and $550 per tonne in Brazil, according to Uralkali.
Demand for fertilizer has increased with a growing need for food amid rising populations and unpredictable weather conditions.