Why I love this stockIf you look at the unrisked NPV 20 P50 valuation in the latest presentation, it is around $26bn. And the current stock market valuation is approximately 1% of this. So one way of interpreting this is that the market is giving CGX a 1% chance of success at finding the P50 quantity. I don't understand this, since Tullow has a much, much higher success rate than this (currently 87%), and they wouldn't be investing in Jaguar if they really thought it was a 1% well.
CGX won't be worth anything if they don't have success in either Eagle or Jaguar. But if either of those two is successful on either of the targets, CGX is suddenly worth a lot. And I just don't believe that there is only a 1% chance of success.