GREY:TSTIF - Post by User
Comment by
dant2on Apr 20, 2012 3:15pm
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Post# 19818027
RE: Could it be this easy with the resubmission
RE: Could it be this easy with the resubmission I'm thinking it actually could be this easy. As I understand it the resub has nothing to do with the fundamental science behind the TOS technology, it is mainly about clarifying assertions around terminal sterilization relating to the cycles. RR mentioned that the only other FDA questions seemed to be sort of 'clean up noise' - dotting t's and i's related to documentation. I'm thinking we could actually see this approval towards end of May or perhaps more likely June, unless some other unforeseen issue comes out of the woodwork at us. I'm betting Q2, and if thats the case we will begin to see the cash burn shrink in Q3.
My back of the napkin - if TOS nets just 6.5% on sales (ASP 150K) then they will make ~.03ps at 200 units. That does not include the ever growing and lucrative supplies needed to keep the machines running. At just 200 units installed this should be in the ball park of 2-3Mpa, and its high margin as well. Plus the OR product - commercial event expected this year!
Of course all this pie in the sky stuff depends on 3M and customer uptake - post FDA approval. But TOS really does have excellent revenue and profit potential - in my view so much so that they will probably be taken out before we get to realize it.
My bets are in but as is so often the case with these small caps I'm wondering what it is that I don't know and what potential black swans are flying over head lining me up.
Good luck