TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Comment by
Karmanowon May 31, 2012 1:05am
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Post# 19964002
RE: BHP Jansen News!
RE: BHP Jansen News! ANBCA, very nice article for those willing to read it...and understand what the CEO is saying and its implications for global potash...and in particular for Junior Potash Miners...it appears Mr. Doyle (CEO Potash Corp.) may have been right all along...and his comments to anyone that would listen for the last year..."the numbers just do not work for a new mine in Sask."...It appears Mr Kloppers has been playing with his calculator and come to the same conclusion...Taking Jansen out of the mix for the next 2 years...allows Allana to get BFS completed and mine built within 1.5 years from now...and to boot, a likely offtake agreement with Indian Potash Co. (as indicated by a senior official with the company) "we are very close to a DEAL with Allana Potash"...hmmm A secured Offtake Agreement in hand for a purchaser for 1m tons of MOP will give Farhad even more power at the table for the $600m for capex we are going to need later this year...Thank you Mr. Doyle for being correct...I could not get the numbers to work either....but what matters is the board of BHP are not prepared to invest anymore in Jansen...already spend $1.2b...they could have bought half the Ethiopian Basin for that investment and end up spending a small portion of the $12b earmarked for the capex for Jansen...and still have Billions of dollars left...and for the record, Allana is in very good shape and the chance of a take over or a hostile bid can be defended quite nicely...it appears Liberty is going to be our White Knight and with the buyback of shares plus the share holders rights program and additional shares allowed to be purchased and with the hostile having to buy 20% of AAA shares that do not count in the required 51% of shares....makes it impossible for a hostile to win....we appear off to production or a friendly offer for pounds in the ground...and last I calculated was near $14 per ton sellable KCL....so, lets forget take overs...and worry more about getting the share price closer to the value of pounds in the ground...1.3b tons m+I x 19% KCL x 35% extraction ratio x $14 per ton / 230m shares outstanding = $5.25 per share of AAA...on friendly terms only...and not a penny less! Patience will be paid in due time...some of us have been waiting for years now...
“The economics of some of these projects has changed,” he said. “I think for the next two years, 18 months perhaps, we will just wait and see how things develop.”
The Jansen project, estimated to cost as much as $12-billion, has the potential to become the largest potash mine in the world and is one of three major projects BHP was slated to consider for approval later this year. But comments by the global mining giant's chief executive officer, Marius Kloppers, suggest the company could postpone such developments.