RE: Gold swap I have no doubt Croc will turn a profit, briefly. I personally have been a big fan of the potential of this stock for quite a while but I don't see it is a long term winner and here's why.
The Cosmos mine is obviously where all of their future profits are coming from but even with the Cosmo ramp up they are only expecting 80k ounces per year out of this mine. They are currently operating three mines, one produces 69-74k ounces per year and is set to close around the end of 2013(Stawell), another is set to close in 2015 or 2016 dependon on when the 3 year mine life is actually decided from, this mine produces 82-87k ounces(Fosterville), and the third is Cosmo. As you are aware Croc recently sold off the majority of it's land holdings to Pitch Black retaining 10% of each untouched property. The only mine they retained other than the three producing mines is Pine Creek which also only has a 3 year expected mine life. This means that in 2014 the expected ounces produced will be around 167k ounces at best. In 2015 depending on the life of the Fosterville mine it could be anywhere from 80k-167k. The gold swap agreement will not be paid off until the end of 2015 (It was a 45 month agreement for 8k ounces per month). This leaves their 2016 projected ounces at 80k unless they decide to spend the capital to ramp up the Pine Creek mine which will either cut into profits or include more debt. This seems like a bit of a stretch for a mine with only a 3 year life with an estimate of 37k ounces per year. The mines are all obviously in Australia and all ounces are sold in AUD which has been performing very strongly against the USD which has driven costs higher. They will continue to see their cost per ounce rise once the Stalwell mine closes. They can produce gold from some of the Stalwell stockpiles but it is very low grade ore and the supply is obviously limited.
Croc selling the other properties was what made this an unattractive stock from this investor's point of view. It doesn't have long term potential. If you're looking for the quicker payoff PGLC has lower reservers and much lower output but big backers and they hype the hell out of everything they do, if you're looking for a good longer term huge pay off I think Victoria Gold has a much better portfolio.