GREY:AVNDF - Post by User
Comment by
billfox54on Mar 17, 2013 11:51pm
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Post# 21143759
RE: RE: YLO
RE: RE: YLO I agree that AVF is the least likely to go broke, and that the other two have serious hurdles, but it wouldn't surprise me to find that CHX, with huge leverage and 66% natgas weighting, might have a shot at the most upside. That said, I don't think there's enough information with CHX to know how they'll do. In Q3 they were trading just over 2x cash flow (real cheap) and 8x debt to cash flow (real scarey). I have no clue what will happen when they slow down spending. Q4 natgas prices will be higher, so they should have a couple of pretty good quarters, but I don't have much confidence in their ability to maintain that production without spending money. No one's chatting over on the CHX site, so if anyone here has any thoughts on their numbers, I'd appreciate hearing about it.
Disclosure: I bought some CHX assuming this deal would go through, not on their own merits. Owned some of all three, but only have CHX left. Billfox