RE: RE: What if they Never Meet Production Goal? Joseph,
The $48/bbl bitumen you used in your calculation is the Plant Gate Netback (net of all transportation and diluent cost). This number is used as a base for the Alberta Royalties charges and should not be confused with the Operational Netbacks or Corporate Netbacks.
To get the Operational Netbacks you have to subtract the Royalties and Operational Cost.
Corporate Netbacks will include the G&A (General and administration) and interest expenses and Maintenance (sustainability) Capital (very high for SAGD plants), etc....
Obviously at this time (~ 2000 to 2500 bbl/d) their netbacks are negative because fixed cost of running the plant).
FWIW I would suggest that STP-McKay Operational Netbacks (with 10,000 bbl/d ) will be ~$20 to ~$25/bbl of Bitumen.
If the cost of Maintenance Capital will be reasonable ($20 to $30 million) their Corporate Netbacks should be ~$7 to $10/bbl.
Hope this will help to recalculate the cashflow/share and projected multiples for STP.