The End of Iraq ... See 2nd para
The End of Iraq
A prolonged Syria-style civil war in Iraq will effectively signal the end of Iraq. Reconciliation has been given a chance, a decades' worth, since the removal of the former regime in 2003. Civil war would re-start the battle for the future of Iraq, only with negotiation and reconciliation being non-options, as both sides have already tasted what this actually means in practice.
The idea of dividing Iraq into autonomous regions, if not independent states, now has greater appeal than ever before. The first and most likely to declare independence could be the Kurds, should turmoil in Arab Iraq threaten their continued prosperity. Some Sunni provinces have already called for a Sunni region similar to the Kurdistan Region in the north, which has its own government, enjoys substantial autonomy and controls and manages its own security, energy resources and foreign relations. This month, the Sunni province of Salahaddin even went as far as unilaterally signing deals with international oil companies, without approval from Baghdad.
The creation of an autonomous Sunni region makes sense. Few, if any, of Iraq's Sunnis believe that the Shia are willing to treat them as equals. The past decade has provided ample evidence of that. A Sunni region gives them a powerful means of containing and competing with the Shia, in partnership with a potential Sunni-governed Syria that borders Iraq's Sunni provinces.
Centralism and the concentration of power in Baghdad has been a failed exercise, despite the loss of lives and the resources dedicated to it. The fragmentation of Iraq into separate autonomous regions is not a solution in and of itself. It is, however, a viable option that accommodates existing realities on the ground, that allows for a fairer balance of power between Sunni and Shia; and can be pursued through mechanisms already enshrined in the Iraqi constitution.