Twin Butte Energy Ltd TBTEF

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Overreaction

[bshort92]

Read this :https://www.beatingtheindex.com/twin-butte-energy-a-heavy-oil-producer-with-sustainable-yield/

That was from a September 2012 article. Once the Waseca deal closed TBE was producing 19,200 boe/d November 2012.

Now go back and read TBE's most recent operational update. It clearly states TBE will exit 2013 producing 15,500 boe/d.

So if you do the math you can see that TBE's production in September 2012 is 19,200 boe/d and will exit 2013 producing 15,500 boe/d amid a $100 + WTI oil market. That is a loss of 3700 boe/d or about 20%. That is why TBE is trading at $1.66 from a high of $3.02. So ask yourself are they going to lose another 20% of their production in 2014? Will WTI stay above $100 in 2014 and if it does not how can they drill enough wells with their constrained capex to keep from going under 15,500 boe/d and still pay close to a 12% dividend? The 2013 Q1 earnings report had them producing 17,600 boe/d and they were supposedly constructing a rail facility at Lashburn to double their oil rail capacity to offset the wide differentials afflicting heavy producers. The whole story is a shambles and that is why over five and a half million shares traded today and the issue was up only a stinking .04. No one believes the story can survive in its present form. Real energy investors are in no mood for some story that changes every quarter. Do what you say and say what you do and quit blaming the weather because no one else is losing 20% the last seven months of their production in this environment.