RE:Stock Valuation ModelsDoing my dd I am finding this a fascinating story...if they can get say 80 million for AH, and pay off the debt of $40 million (not paying back the govt yet, not sure if they even have to), that leaves them 40 million plus the existing 20 so $60 million in cash on the balance sheet. This would put them in a very strong negotiating position when they being a search process for the best pharma partner.
The deal with endo was for $25 million plus $140 million in milestones, no? One would think with the developments since then, $60 million in cash they could find a better partner with better terms.
if they have $60 million in cash that is about .43 per share, plus whatever value the market will give for uricidin.
I am not sure any of us can value what the market is paying for what at this point. Right now the company is a mish mash of value with a very negative perception of mgmt based on what the former mgmt has done. If they get to the point where they have $60-70 million in cash, showing a successful execution of the sale of AH, and are negotiating with potential partners on uricidin, one would think the stock would be well north of .50 or .60, if not .70 or .80 as we wait for the partnership process to unfold.
I see long suffering shareholders are cynical of management's ability to sell AH and deliver on the rest of the business. It seems since the stock has declined nonstop for 12 years these are reasonable thoughts. It will be interesting to see if new management can deliver on the sale of AH and then deliver a good partnership where the stock would go. Based on prior terms, if they were to get $25 million plus $150 million in milestones and royalties (I bet they could get better since the junior biotech space is so much better now), that would give them $85 million in cash and the market woud likely give half the value of the milestones to $75 million + 85 gives 160 million market value into 150 million shares is about $1.10.
Those are using conservative numbers as it appears AH is worth something more than 80 million and a new partnership negotiated in a better environment with a company with no debt and $60 million + in the bank would likely get much better terms.
Seems like a nice punt at .36.