TSXV:CAV.H - Post by User
Comment by
mining_pays_my_billson Apr 03, 2014 9:47am
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Post# 22404770
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Illustrative Purpose in the News Release Today. 91 million
RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Illustrative Purpose in the News Release Today. 91 millionMickey, I gotta' side with loastalot on this one. The only way BAJ ends up with nothing is if the project goes $900M over budget (BAJ contributes proportionally based on their 10% ownership). They're worth $90M like we said, which is10% of $900M. I know they went $900M over budget so far, but that was based on orginal forecast price before construction began, there's a lot of things that can go wrong at that point. Now, they're at 95% construction completion, and the revised cost forecast is $1.75B, it's highly unlikely that they could spend an additional 50% of the overall budget in the final 5% of the work. In fact I'd be surprised if the final bill was even $2B. I think it'll be about 1.85B and BAJ ends up with 9%, just as in their "illustrative" example in the MD&A, leaving us a valuation of 7X current market cap.