RE:Q3 and Q4 estimated oil production ramp up looks greatoldtimer21 wrote: COS expects Syncrudes average BOPD to be approximately 286,000 in Q3 and 319,000 in Q4!
i can't imagine management putting out this very strong guidance if they weren't highly confident given all the operational problems over the past years.
If this happens 2015 should be on firm footing.
I don't see this as strong when they still reduced the annual production guidance range by 3 Mbbls!! It is now a possibility that this year could be worse than last years 97.5 Mbbls! Either way, anything less than 100 Mbbls / yr shouldn't be viewed as good. Read it as the production has to be sustained at a the highest levels for the rest of the year, just to keep up with last year. But the track record isn't very good on this.
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It will be interesting to find out what the actual for July production was, the outlook summary seems to be vague about it. Did anyone listen to the conference call, what was said about these sulphur processing units? Guessing that if Aug and Sep have to be at the 310 K/day average that COS says is needed for the remainder of the year, indicates some issues in July after the planned maintenance.
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Lets see what happens. With the Suncor dividend increase from their Q2 report, any new reliability problems could see some investmetn capital moving over to SU. If you think SU has more upside potential to the share price, with a divy now not far behind COS, it's probably good to hold some SU to diversify oil sands exposure. I have both and might favor increasing SU position over COS.