RE:RE:Here are some more MBAC Fertilizer Corp. analyst reportsThanks for posting these reports. I read them with interest. But with the greatest respect the "analysists" I think they are missing the point. The value of MBAC isn't there because the price of SSP isn't there. The Raymond James report with a 50 cent per share target is using 2015 SSP at $292 per tonne (2015 production of 425Kt grossing $124M = $292 per tonne). The BMO capital markets report with a $1.00 per share target thinks it is possible to assess company's prospects without considering future SSP prices and how that will affect revenues. The Canaccord Report with a 28 cent per share target is using 2015 SSP at $220 per tonne (2015 production of 450Kt grossing =$99M = $220 per tonne). But the reality is SSP is a declinging comododity. The company reports its sales at $201 per tonne in 2013, and I think 2014 and 2015 are going to see lower commodity prices. There are various reports online about this. For example it says at
https://www.phosphorusplatform.eu/scope-in-print/past-issues/338-phosphates-2014-phosphate-industry-challenges-and-opportunities.html
"predictions of stable or increasing prices presented at Phosphates 2013 proved to be wrong (prices continued to fall)"
So SSP at $292 or $220 in 2015 is just not realistic, and the shares are not worth 50c or even 28c. While SSP supply is growing demand is shrinking. Agrigulture is generally moving away from SSP which contains only 16% phosphate, in favour of alternatives with higher concentrations, like DAP which contains 48% phosphate. And with a mountain of debt and no way to repay I really question whether the shares of MBAC Fertilizer are worth anything at all. The company is already dead and the shareholders just haven't figured that out yet. At least, in my opinion.