RE:RE:RE:Phase 3: New ValuationQuest
I was going to reply to Blue sky who is new to RVX. Then I saw your post and will comment on it as well. I have been invested in RVX since Jan 2004 - 11 years now. More than most posters on this board. I live in Calgary. My office is very near the RVX office. I have attended every AGM since 2006 and posted reports on those AGMs first on Investor Village where my alias was trt and since 2010 on Stockhouse. If anbody is interested I can provide those reports. There is no doubt that there have been offers on the table for RVX dating back to 2007. More on that later but here are some salient events that reinforce my belief that RVX can strike a deal: the caveat being that Don et all do not get too greedy. This is a little history on the trials and tribulations of RVX from the early days on. My AGM reports contain additional pertinent info.
In late 2006 rumours were circulating in Calgary that RVX was talking with a big pharma.
In Jan 2007 Don held an info session for Shareholders at the Palliser Hotel in Calgary.A huge cowd turned out to the venue. The room likely cost a pile to rent for a couple hours. Don held a brown manila envelope in the air and intimated there was an offer on the table in the $ 30.00 range which equated to roughly $ 1.2B. He said he didn't want to mention the P word. The stock proceeded to jump to its all time high of $ 29.75 in a week or so and subsequently dropped back to single digits.
In May 2007 Roger Newton joined the board at RVX. Newton was the co-discoverer of Liptitor while at Parke Davis and had been with Pfizer after they acquired PD. Why would a guy with his credentials join RVX. What did he know? He joined Dr Jan Johanssen who worked with Roger at Parke Davis and is still with RVX.
Maybe he knew something was going to fly. Speaking of which in july 2007 the Pfizer corporate jet was rumoured to have secretly flown into Calgary. Oh of course the Calgary Stampede was on.
In 2008 a trading blackout was imposed on all execs and employees of RVX and a data room was opened to any prospective sutiors. No takers.
In 2009 Peter Johann and NGN invested heavily in RVX and Peter eventually became chairman of the board. NGN is given first right of refusal to purchase RVX at $ 13.74 in event of a takeover offer. Also Arthur Higgins former CEO of Bayer Healthcare joins the RVX board.
In May 2010 a lawsuit was lodged against Don and/or other RVX officials in Calgary for somehting like misrepresenting the share price potential. The plaintiffs ( one went to the same high school as Don ) claimed that they were told the stock would hit $ 60.00 to $ 100.00. Of course that never happened and they lost a pile of dough and were peeved. The lawuit never saw the light of day.
In 2011the famous ASSURE trial started with great optimism. The renowned Cleveland Clinic supervised the trial and in Sept 2011 Dr. Stephen Nichols from the CC spoke at the AGM in Caglary. I had a chance ot speak with him. Everything was looking great. At the Q and A after the meeting I asked Don if Esperion sold for $ 1.3B from Pfizer would he take $ 1.3B for RVX. His reply was " only if it was my portion." I calculated that based on his holdings he would like to see a price for RVX of $ 22B. Was he joking or just bravado on his part.
Oct 2011 Ken Dart steps up to the plate to backstop the Citibank loan of $ 25MM. He claims it is only for personal investment purposes. But he is worth over $ 6,000,000,000 so he could easily fund the Phase 3 - Norman Wong told me that he has already offered to do that. He could conceivably buy out RVX himself and merge it into his Dart NueroScience group.
June 2013 - ASSURE reuslts announced and plaque regression is 0.4% versus a target of 0.6%. The trial is deemed a complete failure and the stock price plummets to $ 0.15. Remarkably RVX is the most heavily traded stock on the TSX for 2 days. Don announces thay are not sure if they will carry on with RVX208. We all know what has happened since - the very positive MACE resultswith the RVX208-Crestor combo and heading into Phase 3. Phase 3 will be great but Don may have only one dance partner with deep enough pockets to meet his price - Astra Zeneca and so far they remain on the sidelines.
This is the craziest inverstment I think I have ever made. I am frustrated by it and I too am getting impatient after 11 long years. I have also been enthralled by it and do truly believe the science is solid.
Again this is for newbies mostly. I hope it helps. Maybe I will drop into RVX this week.
Torpedoman