Ethan Did some Due Diligence.. Excellent Post Ethan Ethan's post on SH
SOP results
At the AGM I believe Farhad was saying they were expected to get the SOP results in a few weeks.. Now, i'm guessing they go over it etc and put a news release together about the next steps which I assume will release and let strategic partners do their due dilligence. then in a few months time, probably sign some agreements etc and start the BFS study. I believe the results will be at the earliest next week at about tuesday. and the latest about 2-3 weeks time.
Now, as for the shareprice assumptions.. It is only a PEA, but, if it is possible, then I think the market will give it some value. How much? anyones guess.. I think after the BFS, it will have much more value as it is more accurate generally. I can see the shareprice climbingg 15-20% on the news. If it is very positive. I would think it would go higher and it might, i'm just putting the minimum expectations. Don't expect a 50% increase straight out the gate (unless it is crazy economics like virtually identical to do SOP vs MOP...
I"m guessing that the SOP pea will be very positive.. I think the numbers will come out at 10-15% more on opex and about 750-900 mil to build. FYI, that would be much better economics than our mop operation and one of the lowest cost producers in the world.
I think virtually all the majors would be at least taking a look at us. I actually think there is a high probability that ICL will make an offer for the whole deal if the PEA is that positive. It provides diversification, a growing market for them and they really don't have to worry about Israel anymore.
I think people forget this point: *** the reason ICL and Allana are investing in the potash growth story with blending plants and demonstration courses, studies for farmers and helping them understand how good potash could be is this: POTASH IN AFRICA carries a significant premium to other parts of the world. For example. I believe Brazil is paying about 350-375 per tonne spot. In africa, it would be at least 375-400. At these potash price levels. I think it could be and is probably a bit north of 400. Why is that? it is because it has more risk, and it takes much longer and costlier to ship potash there. When we are on the doorstep, we basically save most of the shipping costs and poket that cash savings as a premium.
I think final water tests will come out soon as well.
I do not expect the cavvern tests/optimization studies etc to be complete until end of q1.. sometime in march i'm guessing.
I'm guessing financing will come in the mid summer/late summer. late q2-early q3.
My final thoughts are I think next year this time when the BFS study on the SOP side and we are in full construction mode, our shareprice will be much much higher.
I think most people are just waiting on the sidelines to be honest with this one.. as they have seen other potash juniors get pummelled, they are just waiting to see who can actually get through the financing hurdle.
Remember, ICL bought in at 50-60cents. and that was because they brought alot to the table. We are at .30 with alot of Probable positive results..
Things could change quite quickly for us.. dont blink! maybe just maybe some of the bashers here might be kicking themselves for not buying in.. i guess we will have to see..