The price of gold is trading today at US$1,202.50/oz. on the NYMEX. The price of gold peaked at US$1,921.50 on September 6
th 2011. The price decline that has followed was largely due to a decline in the demand for gold. Global gold demand has fallen to its lowest level in 5 years. The major decline for gold demand in 2014 occurred in China where 3
rd quarter year over year sales were down 37%. This was largely due a decline in jewelry demand. We had expected a decline in China last year of around 10% given the exceptional buying that took place in 2012 and 2013. In addition the US dollar has appreciated significantly in the last 6 years versus most currencies which is negative for gold demand. Our outlook has a gold price of US$1,300/oz. by the end of this year and our outlook has an end of year price in 2016 of US$1,400/oz. and US$1,500/oz. at the end of 2017. We expect that the demand for gold jewellery, gold bars and gold coins in China will increase over the next three years after the major decline last year. In addition India reduced the gold import tax by 2.5% in November 2014 and this resulted in increased gold sales. The gold import tariff did reduce the demand for gold over the past couple of years in India and resulted in some substitution in the jewelry market to silver and palladium. Jewelry demand on a world-wide basis represents 43% of total gold demand. India presently is the 2
nd largest consumer of gold as it accounts for 25% of global demand. While the US economy has improved there is still a large budget deficit and a significant trade deficit which will result in some Central Banks and sovereign funds buying gold as a substitute for the US dollar. In fact, since 2010 Central Banks have become net buyers of gold after a decade in which they had sold more gold than they had purchased and this trend is continuing. In addition we expect that the US dollar will have a modest appreciation versus the Euro and the Yen over the next 2 years but will be flat versus the other trade weighted currencies. This will result in more gold purchases by investors in those countries whose currencies are not depreciating versus the US dollar. We also note that the selling pressure from the gold based exchange traded funds decreased significantly last year. Our outlook for gold supply over the next three years is lower than some of the other gold industry forecasts, especially those forecasts that have the US$800/oz. outlook. We continue to see labour shortages, power shortages, permitting problems, and rising economic nationalism in some jurisdictions which have resulted in the delay of some projects that were to begin in the next three years. In addition the large decrease in the price of gold in the last 3 years has resulted in the delay of one major gold project in each of Peru and the Philippines, and recent announcements from major gold companies indicate that capital expenditures over the next three years are being reduced. In addition grade degradation continues to be an issue as it is becoming more difficult to find new mines with high grades and the average grade of new discoveries continues to decline. The result is that the marginal cost of producing gold is increasing which will limit new supply opportunities.
CHF clients with gold in their portfolios include:Atlanta Gold Inc. (TSXV: ATG), Ecuador Gold and Copper Corp. (TSXV: EGX), Nuinsco Resources Limited (TSX: NWI), and Phoenix Gold Resources Corp. (TSVX: PXA).
Companies that we follow in this sector that are not CHF clients include Barkerville Gold Mines (TXSV: BGM), California Gold Mining Inc.(TXSV: CGM) and Rye Patch Gold Corp. (TSXV: RPM).