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TELESTA THERAPEUTICS INC T.TST

"Telesta Therapeutics Inc is a biopharmaceutical company. The Company is engaged in the research, development, manufacturing and commercialization of human health products and technologies."


TSX:TST - Post by User

Post by beechguyon Apr 03, 2015 3:13pm
311 Views
Post# 23595538

35% CRR on Papillary

35% CRR on PapillaryI am annoyed that they don't mention the fact the Papillary patients (that are 90% of NMIBC population base) had a complete response of 35%. A third of BCG refractory patients will have an alternative to Cystectomy (bladder removal). If we use Berendt's numbers from the AGM - 80k BC patients in US annually. 80% are NMIBC. Of those 80% will become refractory to BCG within 2 years. 90% of those are Papillary. 15-24 instillations at (the revised) $4000 per instillation. If we use a 25% penetration number (conservative) that leaves us 11,520 Papillary patients. At $60,000 full instillation. (lower end of cited numbers) that is $691,200,000 USD in peak revenue. $864mm CDN. At the meagerest revenue multiple of 2 x revenue (should be 4 x) that is 1.728B valuation. That is $8.64 / share . That is without Canada and the rest of the world. At some point big investors will figure this out. I hope before we get bought out for pennies on the dollar. All of you that are sick of this circuitous route this company has taken over the years (vast majority of it from the previous regime) and selling shares, should consider what you may be leaving on the table. Less than a year from now, if the FDA rules in our favour (at an FDA panel discussion one member said Urocidin /MCNA is a much needed treatment for BC patients and the FDA advised to file with existing dataset without a phase 3B trial), we are likely looking at a $8 - $15 stock. It all starts when we get through the pivotal .42 range. Have a look at EDT chart if you want to see what our chart should look like after the breakout occurs. beech
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