RE:RE:RE:RE:The Potential Future of CanexusCalgaryrider wrote:
Blue, I work in one of the big towers downtown (Cowtown) and I can tell you, every tom, richard and harry has their own opinion about where oil is going....and you're right, nobody knows.
Everyone tries to be an analyst on the matter, but, frankly, there is no economic analysis to do.
Oil does not and has never traded on supply & demand fundamentals. OPEC and other producers would love to have you beleive that there is a normal market governing this stuff, but the fact is, there isn't. Even my own company puts out predictions, my CFO talks about rising oil, etc. It's a joke. If you don't have a middle eastern historian, a religious analyst and a political strategist at the table driving predictions, and you're leaving this to CFAs, MBAs and Economists (of which I am one), and you're deluding yourself that you're going to have any accurate picture of the future.
If you talk to people that know anything about the Middle East they'll tell you that the Saudi's will continue to supress the only thing that empowers Iran's redonculous leadership, and that's the price of oil. I could go on, but I won't.
Don't throw good money after bad. Not yet. Wait for the other shoe to fall.
Calgaryrider; The way I see it is that the North American Oil Industry is driven by Price/Economics which in turn are driven by the Global Market which is largely Geopolitical.
What most people don’t understand is that Saudi Arabia is basically Owned & Operated by the “House of Saud” (a large family).
The “House of Saud” have a lot of enemies both inside and outside of Saudi Arabia.
The British have had close ties with the “House of Saud” that predate the formation of Saudi Arabia and the Americans got involved a bit later. In the beginning it was so that the Brits and Americans could exert Political Influence in the region. The Brits, French (North Africa) etc. are very good at this stuff (devious). They have been playing this kind of game for centuries. The Americans are relatively new to the “games” and seem to rely on $ and brute force. Oil has become a very big part of the equation.
It’s a very long sordid history of backroom deals and “dubious” alliances. The “Short Version” is that the Saudis and their Friends/Relatives in the other Gulf States have been trading Oil/Political Influence for the Military Hardware, Support and Dollars (Gold) they require to keep their “Possessions”. In a convoluted way a “Win Win” most of the time….
As for the Global Fundamentals of oil. We have been told that Global Supply is currently abt. 1.5m bbl/day more than consumption and rising. If we round that up to 2m bbl/day that is 730m bbl/year which is abt. One (1) week of Global consumption which is actually rising.
Fundamentals started the decline in the Oil price. Geopolitics and Speculative Trading have driven the price down to the current (temporary) levels. The price of Oil will go up! How soon and how much is the question….
The above is just my un-expert take on the situation. It is a bit off topic but how thing pan out in the next few months will have an effect on the Canexus / NATO situation.
As Always; Do Your Own Due Diligence; It’s Your Money !!