CANEXUS CORP 6.5 PCT DEBS T.CUS.DB.D

RE:RE:Q4 Results

[Kherson]

ocean112 wrote: I never thought i'd see current prices - but limit buys are kicking in nicely.  To say current prices are irrational is an understatement and I will reiterate - the selling is coming from one or two sellers who are intentionally pushing this stock down despite strong buying interest (we're at 600,000+ shares already by mid day today).

Secondly - there is a good chance that Q4 will be better than expected since it was noted there are nominated volumes for NATO in Q4 and favorable exchange rate - where the market seems to be giving no value to NATO contribution.

Also, there may be positive guidance for 2015.  With FX rate likely to fall with oil, and with analysts expecting a gradual u shaped recovery by end of 2015 for crude - more disposeable income (lower gas prices) will push up demand for consumer goods (like toilet paper, packaged goods), which should bode well for chemicals.

Lastly - and most importantly - we'll get an update on NATO.  Market is assuming no sale - based on the current share price.  (Market is attributing negative value to NATO).   That said - I have to ask myself - why is it taking 3 months since the bids were received to make an announcement on NATO (unless there is some serious negotitions taking place where both parties are close to a deal - if they weren't close - they would have made an announcement weeks ago that they are keeping NATO - in my humble opinion).  

Considering 2 weeks ago we breached $3.14.....with good news in the interim (Keystone veto, differentials are improving and close to $15 US as of yesterday).....someone is taking a big gamble shorting at these prices.   I'm obviously going long at these prices.  

I won't recommend going short or go long at this point since i'm learning to say "never say never" - in 1 day we'll know the answers.