GREY:LFDEF - Post by User
Post by
terminator45on Mar 25, 2016 12:21pm
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Post# 24700725
My take on CMD
My take on CMDI haven't posted in a while since there is nothing really happening until CMD.
I believe that we are in for a possible sell off no matter what is said at the meeting. The reason is that I think that there are a ton of potential sellers waiting in the wings for a big event in order to generate high enough volume to sell into. This is exactly what happened when q3 was reported last year. I bought the day over $2 to play the earnings announcement and I got crushed even though the earnings were stellar and the conference call was extremely bullish. Even management was stunned at the reaction. I think there are still a lot of holders out there who are looking to "get out" at the hint of any good news and just be rid of this name and move on.
Also, remember that earnings will be released the morning of the 30th but discussion won't happen until the end of CMD, around 4 pm. If there is something negative in the release it won't be discussed for another 6 hours at least. People pretty much expect some positive news about MOU signings so I don't expect much of a stock price bump from that news. However, no signings and down we go.
So basically, we seem to be in a lose-lose situation on CMD. If the stock pops in the morning, I don't believe the gains will hold. I do not expect granular guidance of any kind, mostly ranges and overall market growth. Remember, once they start giving specific guidance, they have to continue to do so (good or bad) from that point on. And we know management's history of not giving out anything specific. I don't expect that stance to change.
I sold about halfmy holdings the past couple weeks because I don't want to get caught flat-footed again. I still have a substantial stake so if I'm wrong, I will participate in the upside. Believe me, I hope I am wrong as I think that UR can get back to $4 easy if things click and we can get rid of the large stock overhang. But as Larson said in an interview, "Space is hard".
All this is JMHO so take it as that. Opinions (good or bad) are welcome.
T45