an excerpt from a rbc report this amlets see how" iminent" this is at the meeting
Nigeria has been hit by a new wave of attacks on its energy infrastructure following the decision by the cash-strapped Buhari government to end payments to militia leaders in the Niger Delta and to begin prosecuting them for their ongoing criminal activities. We believe that the Nigerian supply disruptions (which at the time of writing were around 800 kb/d) could last for a prolonged period and actually increase in magnitude. Throughout the early 2000s, Nigerian output was routinely curtailed for extended periods by a variety of armed actors. At its peak in 2009, the MEND insurgency was claiming an estimated 1,000 lives per year, had cut Nigeria’s oil output by 50%, and was costing the government close to $19mln per day in defense outlays (International Crisis Group). The major turning point came with the signing of an amnesty agreement that removed the threat of criminal prosecution and provided monthly cash payments and vocational training programs to thousands of former MEND militants at a cost of around $500mln annually. However, the amnesty essentially served as an expensive “Band-Aid” covering the fundamental drivers of instability—poverty, corruption, the proliferation of weapons—that remained unaddressed. For example, as of March 2015, only 151 of the 15,451 graduates of the job training programs had found jobs with credible employers in the country (International Crisis Group). Now, through a combination of low oil prices and the determination of Buhari to crush the oil militants once and for all, that “Band-Aid” has been ripped off and the wound is still festering.