Deal will go throughBNK does not have the cash and technology it needs to fully optimize its operation, access to Chinese capital will be a good way to achieve that. Geo-Jade issued a press release (https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2016-08-31/doc-ifxvixsh6994314.shtml) explaining to their share holders that BNK's tax issue has been resolved, effectively claiming the fruit as their own, demonstrating their confidence that the deal will go through.
Could SAFE just been holding out for Trudeau's visit so they can have Trudeau and Chinese premier signing the deal during his visit to demonstrate bussiness collaboration on CCTV? It would seem to fit well as a news piece for the 7:00 pm national news. I can only speculate.
On BNK's side, the tax relief and $20 million breakup fee will not be enough to make it profitable under current environment without a significant rebound in oil price.
Lastly, the oil market has been very volatile with little signs towards either direction, 14.5% return from todays price may not seem that bad.