RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Previous $3 assumptions were a mistakeThe big drive for renewables and power storage technologies is already underway. But even if the oil price shot to $1.50 and stayed there it would not result in a sudden surge in renewable development. Neither will the oil price settle at $80 that is not an option now:
The small growth in non-opec output that is expected this year (OPEC cuts and demand growth will easily outrun the non-OPEC growth) is mainly due to production coming on stream for which development commenced around 5 years ago well before the oil price fall, it has much less to do with production being strategically brought back on due to higher price expectation going forward. It is not until 2019 that the under investment in the oil sector of recent years will begin to create an oil production shortfall that will take years to address. Investment cycles are long for over 90% of oil production.
Renewables will have their day but the impact will be slight for another 5 years, small 5 to 10 years out and growing more significantly from 10 to 20 years out. Timescales both for oil investment/under investment impacts and for the wider application of renewables as a replacement energy source are widely misunderstood.
Doug