Last time VIX index was complacent Gold took off, markets corrected and were volatile
Ie late 2015 going into january 2016 and beyond.
A low VIX index meaning most don't think a market correction is at hand,
which is strange after all the run up in the stock market after Trumps
victory, and an assortment of world financial, economic and geopolitical
problems going on in the world. Like there is no economic, currencies
and interest rates recovery in the world to pay for the world debts, just
getting the US's interest rates to 4% crashes the interest on the US's and
world's debts, and the northeastern republicans/democrats trying to
create world war tensions with russia, and the far rightist Trump trying to
provoke the same and trade war with china.
The stock market should correct 15% or so.
However in a couple of months after that the stock market might shoot
right back up and beyond where it is now because of how the FED
reacts to the below due to the FED's interest rate decisions and those
world financial, economic and geopolitical problems in the world. The
understanding of them getting worse as the 2017 moves on. Most likely
by inflationary causing money printing, along with Trump's inflationary
causing infrastructure plans and tax cuts.
The logic being
by march 15's FED meeting to increase interest rates or not, and whether
does or doesn't, will most likely be good for the gold market and volatile for
the stock market, as either the FED starts to test more than one interest rate
increase in a year again, or doesn't by march 15, making it look like it will be
another 1 only interest rate increase year and something is wrong that the
markets can't handle more than one again. Either way it will be good for gold
and unnerving for the markets, causing stock market volatility and gold rally.
We seem to be seeing some of that even before the FED meeting on march
15.
Though like I said the markets probably recovering a few months after that
again for the usual rationalized reasons that may be the last time it can
get away with increasing the stock market again, other than by inflationary
means for a year (ie more money printing and stimulous printing like for
Trump's infrastructure plans and tax cuts) and then a possible real crash
happens that we don't recover from. At least for a few years, if ever because
the stock markets and currencies of the world, and even a new world currency
are being reset.
From
'The VIX Is A Coiled Spring'
by @Goldfinger
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/the-vix-is-a-coiled-spring
"The last time institutional investors had anywhere near this little net long
exposure to VIX futures was late-2015, just before we saw a huge spike in
(me- gold rally) (me- stock market) volatility in January of 2016. Meanwhile,
(1) (me- most as) futures speculators are net short VIX futures against a (2)
(me- few) net long position by hedge funds and dealers - more than
120,000 contracts net short by non-commercial specs (the many) vs. a more
than 120,000 contract net long by commercials (the few) - , which equates
to a roughly $1.5 billion 'smart money' (by no (2) vs. 'dumb money' (by no (1)
trading confrontation. The 'smart money' is long the VIX, and complacency
(the dumb money by the many) is through the roof." (me- is confusing because
the contract numbers are the same, just the participant numbers in each
group is different. However it translate into a complacent VIX, meaning most
don't expect the stock markets correcting for any reason which is strange too.)
me- the longer the markets can't handle either more than one interest rate
increase a year, or does and upsets the world's debts and interest on the
debt too much, (me- at least I think that is most likely what the author of the
article is referring to) the shorter the period till a sustain correction happens
we don't recover from. Most likely after a big inflationary run up for a year or
so, last gasp, kick at the can, trying to maintain a sort of normalcy in the world
currencies, financial system and economies, that isn't there. All great for gold during the inflation and after the crash even. Since after the
crash gold is most likely going to be playing a big role in the reset of a world
currency in a basket of world currencies. Where gold still maintains a high
price if not nearly as high as at the inflationary high before the crash.
However it could make for a year or more after the crash, a financial and social
an indebted to death zomby peopled like conditions around us and throughout
the world.
All speculation by me that a crash happens in a few years we don't recover from
this time, and a world reset of everything, happens instead.
Maybe nothing of the sort from the above happens at all, or somewhere in
between and we muddle along for another 10 or more years AND THEN A WORLD
CRASH we don't recover from.
Hmmmmm!!!!!!!!!