RE:When does the bleeding stop?ok, I will take a crack at this -
On the surface, the lawsuit looks like a bad turn of events. If the issue is thoroughly litigated, this stock is toast for the foreseeable future. It seems to me the issue is who controls the company. Cartesian looks like they’ve been chipping away at their minority share, pushing the project forward and issuing call orders based on the three directors they have influence over. Come Feb ’18, when preferred shares mature, they will control about 44% of the company. By asking for another 800k and assuming an exchange for stock proportional to the last couple calls, they will be very close to 50%. I think ICP Canada is seeing itself loosing influence and wants to nail down financing from other parties so Cartesian doesn’t takeover the whole venture. The suit says as much, and the question is, how badly does Cartesian want to over-power everyone else?
The timing is interesting as well. Up until this year and since the potash market hit bottom, some degree of optimism is creeping into the potash talk. Money is starting to loosen and some mining greenfields are getting financed. The polyhalite play is generating interest and positive press. Sirius Minerals is getting off-take agreements and succeeding in it’s first tier of financing. ICL is also able to sell their polyhalite product. Just as things are starting to cook, now comes the lawsuit. If they wait too long, they won’t be competitive. I think this pressure will make it in the best interest of both parties to settle somehow and move on. Reading Peter Yu’s bio also makes me think he is unlikely to fight this tooth and claw.
Of course, I maybe missing something here, but this is how I'm seeing it. When (and if!) this thing turns the corner, “value investors” will be very pleased with themselves! Especially now, GLA!