Meandering Thoughts as I Watch TWLOI was checking out TWLO today and deliberating on their breakout quarter. 50% revenue growth in one quarter! Blackberry claims to have a competitive product in this market. It is clearly a growth market. Can they execute?
We only need one product to show hockey stick potential: be it Radar, auto monitoring, CPaaS or another sleeper. Until then, GS is right to be shining the spotlight on the hyper-competitive UEM segment as it is the largest piece of the new BBRY.
On valuation. MOBL does around $44M/qtr. Market cap of around $440M. BBRY does around $105M/qtr in the same space. Let’s assign a $1.05B cap to that. Cash ex converts is around $2B. That leaves around $1.5-2B market cap for the rest of the biz. I recognize this thinking fails on a number of valuation fronts, but I’m trying to make the point we need to find growth to support higher prices. Marty claims to have a TWLO beater - prove it.
Market cap breakdown in billions:
Cash: 2
UEM: 1
Radar/QNX and the rest: 2!
Total: 5 (current market cap)