On today's TSX Breakouts report, there are 16 stocks on the positive breakouts list (stocks with positive price momentum), and 31 stocks are on the negative breakouts list (stocks with negative price momentum).
Discussed today is a company whose share price is drifting lower and the stock is on the cusp of appearing on the negative breakouts list. We last featured in the stock in the Breakouts report in early February. Approximately four months later, the share price had rallied 30 per cent, closing at its 2017 peak of $4.03 on June 14. However, over the past two weeks, the stock price has drifted lower, declining 7 per cent. Last week, two insiders accumulated shares in the market. Analysts on the Street are quite bullish on the stock with the consensus target price implying a potential 30 per cent total return (including the 1 per cent dividend yield) over the next year. The stock highlighted today is ECN Capital Corp. (ECN-T).
A brief outline is provided below that may serve as a springboard for further fundamental research.
The Company
Toronto-based ECN Capital provides commercial financing across three core business segments: rail, aviation, and commercial and vendor.
After the market closed on August 8, the company reported its second quarter financial results. Adjusted earnings per share came in at 4 cents, in-line with the Street's expectations. As at June 30, book value per share stood at $4.70. The share price increased 2 per cent the following day.
On the earnings conference call, management hinted at the potential for future share repurchases. The chief executive officer Steve Hudson stated, "Grier (Grier Colter is the company's chief financial officer) has put an NCIB (normal course issuer bid) in place. We have not been active to date because we had a blackout. I would say, that we believe our stock to be an excellent investment where it's at, so stay tuned."
Management reported that it had completed the sale of approximately 1,550 railcar assets to ITE Management L.P. on August 4 for approximately $173-million (U.S.). In addition, on August 8, the company entered into an agreement to sell approximately 8,400 railcars to Napier Park Global Capital US LP for roughly $935-million (U.S.). These two sales will add approximately $400-million (U.S.) in equity – money that can be used to fund future acquisitions - a potential catalyst for the stock.
ECN CAPITAL CORP
3.75+3.75 (INFINITY%)
PAST THREE YEARS
Dividend Policy
The company pays its shareholders a quarterly dividend of 1 cent per share, or 4 cents per share on a yearly basis. This translates to an annualized dividend yield of 1.1 per cent.
Analysts' Recommendations
There are 13 analysts whom have issued recent research reports on this small-cap stock with a market capitalization of $1.46-billion. The stock has 11 buy recommendations, one 'neutral' recommendation (from the analyst at Credit Suisse), and one 'sell' recommendation (from the analyst at Veritas Investment Research).
The 13 firms that have provided recent research reports on the stock are as follows in alphabetical order: Barclays, BMO Capital Markets, CIBC World Markets, Cormark Securities, Credit Suisse, GMP, National Bank Financial, Raymond James, RBC Capital Markets, Scotia Capital, Stephens, TD Securities, and Veritas Investment Research.
Financial Forecasts
The consensus earnings per share estimates are 17 cents in 2017, rising to 23 cents in 2018.
Earnings forecasts have been revised lower for this year. For instance, three months ago, the Street was expecting earnings per share of 23 cents in 2017.
Valuation
Analysts commonly value the stock on a price-to-book value basis. The stock is trading at a price-to-book multiple of 0.8 times.
The one-year consensus target price is $4.85, suggesting there is 29 per cent upside in the share price over the next 12 months. Target prices range widely from a low of $3.90 (implying just 4 per cent upside potential) to a high of $6 (suggesting 60 per cent upside potential). Individual target prices are as follows in numerical order: $3.90, $4, $4.50, three at $4.75, four at $5, $5.20, $5.25, and $6.
Revised Recommendations
In August, four analysts tweaked their target prices. Three analysts increased their target prices. Phil Hardie, the analyst from Scotia Capital, increased his target price by 50 cents to $5. Nick Stogdill from Credit Suisse took his target price up to $4.50 from $4.25. Nigel D'Souza from Veritas Investment Research increased his target price to $3.90 (the low on the Street) from $3.60. Taking an opposing view, Mario Mendonca from TD Securities trimmed his target price to $4.75 from $5.
Insider Transactions
Two insiders have recently purchased shares in the market.
On August 17, Sandra Ceccacci, senior vice-president – finance and taxation, acquired 87,800 shares. Ms. Ceccacci initiated a portfolio position with the purchase of 40,000 shares at an average price per share of $3.90 on August 11. After these transactions, she held 127,800 shares in the portfolio.
On August 16, director Donna Toth bought 15,000 shares at an average cost per share of $3.92. The previous trading day, Ms. Toth purchased 10,000 shares at an average price per share of $3.93, initiating a portfolio position. After these trades, she held 25,000 shares in the portfolio.
Chart Watch
There is limited trading history for a proper technical analysis since the stock just began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange in September 2016. That being said, since November 2016, the share price has been in an uptrend.
Year-to-date, the share price has increased over 13 per cent, making ECN the top performing stock in the S&P/TSX composite financials sector index. However, the stock price has declined 7 per cent over the past two weeks, and if the share price continues to retreat, the stock may soon appear on the negative breakouts list. The relative strength index is at 35, suggesting the stock is nearing oversold territory. Generally, a reading at or below 30 indicates an oversold condition.
In terms of key support and resistance levels, the stock has strong downside support around $3.60. Failing that, there is support around $3.50, close to its 200-day moving average (at $3.52). There is significant overhead resistance around the $4 price level.
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The Breakouts file is a technical analysis screen intended to identify companies that are technically breaking out. In addition, this report highlights a company's dividend policy, analysts' recommendations, financial forecasts, and provides a brief technical analysis for a security to provide readers with more information.
If a stock appears on the positive breakouts list, this indicates positive price momentum, and that a company may be worthwhile for investors to look at the fundamentals in order to determine if the recent price strength is warranted and will continue. If a security appears on the negative breakouts list, this indicates negative price momentum, and may be indicative of either deteriorating fundamentals or perhaps indicates a buying opportunity.
Securities screened are from the S&P/TSX composite index, the S&P/TSX Small Cap index, as well as Canadian small cap stocks outside of these indices that have a minimum market capitalization of $200-million.
A technical analysis screen does not replace fundamental analysis, but can help identify companies worth having a closer look at.