Here is why.There is a truckload of administration involved, formalizing the votes, agreeing on the form and content of the fairness opinion, the draft court order, etc, etc...
The average time for a plan of arrangement under the CBCA to be completed is 78 days from the date of the initial filing.
My opinion is that, with the unsecured (and possibly a little of the lower ranked secured) debt gone, the value of CXR jumps to at least $2B, and goes possibly as high as $2.5B. It's just financial arithmetic using conservative multiples applied to very baseline performance. Now, let's say the debt gets 80% of the company, although, in my view, the percentage will not be that high. That would require that they issue approximately 200,000,000 new shares, for a total of about 250,000,000. That puts the value per share at something between $8 and $10. Even if they gave 90% to the debt, it would still be between $4 and $5. I do not think that it will be anywhere near that bad.
My assumption is no more material write-downs of goodwill. It's not a stupid assumption, They have been aggressive in that department already, and for good reason. It would be completely foolish to go through this if right after you are going to be forced to continue writing down the company's assets. To the extent that there could be any more write-downs, they will be priced into the deal. Those representing the debt are not idiots.
None of this will help old time, legacy holders of the stock, people who bought when it was flying a year or two ago, if there are still any. But if you bought in at the recent lows, you are in for a good result.
I have been waiting months for this. I thought it would happen sooner.