RE:US shale production has been overestimated this year andAbsolutely. And most traders don't understand the short term spike in shale and conventional oil productions was mostly because of completion of shut-ins and partially completed wells with rig services companies giving away their services at cost to stay alive.
Bottom line is that in reality, longer term is huge funds have left the commodity never to return. Without exploration investments, some talk about a supercycle for oil coming within the next year to 5 years and I agree. We need it badly. Cheap oil will kill the planet and prevent money from finding a long term solution.
I vote for 80$ oil as the new low. That allows everyone to prosper, economies to keep rolling and alternative fuels to finally take off to replace oil in 20-40 years! Right now, we have no alternative fuels. There is nothing that replaces oil as a primary source of energy. The EV hype is not based on facts or figures, it's based on hype.
Warp fusion is still with Star Trek but we do have the "communicators" that allows us to communicate with each other anywhere we want. We don't wear those, we carry them in our pockets.