RE:I am I an idiot for buying more?I don't think you are an idiot... looking at the chart, this seems to have pulled back to the 20-day moving average around this point, so if you are bullish in the mid-term about the prospects for oil, then this would seem to be a decent point to add a bit... I was considering doing so myself, but want to wait to see how trading goes tomorrow.
Oil is interesting at this point, at least in my estimation. It is thoroughly unloved and ignored by most of the market, yet the price of crude has slowly been creeping up, while at the same time, most operators are becoming more efficient with their production of oil.
Also, again in my estimation, the bearish case for the price of oil is well-known, but there could be some mid-term surprises in the early part of 2018, due to a couple of factors, including the following:
- oil and oily stocks generally are in a seasonally favourable time from January to June.
- there is a decent prosect that there could be a bit of rotation into this segment in the new year
- improving economy in the US, along with record auto sales, means more demand for fuel.
- times this demand for fuel again by 2x or 3x, due to improving economies in Europe and Asia
- oil is also used in the production of a lot of petro-chemical consumer goods, so with increasing economic fundamentals and general increase in consumer demand, comes increasing demand for oil in certain areas for industrial production.
- Lastly, potential for any flare-up in the Middle East or Arabian peninsula, which could easily spike oil prices in the short-term. Tensions in that area have been steadily increasing over the past year, but I don't believe much of this risk has been baked into the models of many portfolio managers, especially given the bearish sentiment on this sector.
Net/net, while I am less bullish for oil in the longer term, I do believe that this sector is setting itself up for a nice short-term trade over the next four to six months.
We shall see!
GLTA