Painted Pony Pete Ltd PDPYF

Budget takewayas

[dalerules88]

some key takeways from the 2018 budget

- 52% hedged @ $3.57/mcfe
- only 9% expected to be Station 2 spot
- so presumably remainder is covered by diversification (Methanex deal, Sumas, other hub markets) so let's assume they're close to Nymex pricing on those

- 45% growth rate WHILE staying within cash flow
- in Q4 achieved production volumes to cover Townsend plant commitments, so guaranteed processing capacity without any extra costs
- takeway commitments translate into minimal exposure to western cdn hub pricing, i.e. Pony will get better pricing, elsewhere, and so no stranded gas and no need for shut-ins, unlike some other companies

overall, this budget seems very solid to me - no overspending, plenty of hedging and diversification, while still retaining some flexibility in case prices recover faster than expected

disclosure: long pony, selectively long cdn nat gas