RE:Who Stands to Gain?
I have been watching and waiting to get into this stock but I am nervous for the following reasons: 1. I don't think taking this to arbitration is an option for IVN. Even if they win this case they could be prevented from mining in DRC. Kabila has many options at his disposal to stop the company. Mob rule is just one option. 2. While the impact of the new set of rules may not be as great now there's nothing to stop Kabila from changing the rules again in the future. 3. It's possible that the reason KAT has not reacted in the same fashion (although I believe it has also suffered) may be because of the connection between Glencore and Dan Geltner. The latter seems to have some influence with Kabila and the market may be pricing that factor in to the equation. Kabila obtained most of his weaponry through his connection with Geltner and he may need more in the future if he decides to stay. If, on the other hand, he decides to leave Glencore could provide a sanctuary in Switzerland. I am nervously waiting to pull the trigger hoping that venture trader is right and the recovery is going to be V shaped. But ...